Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Do Not Predict , Just React.

Me and my many Trader Friends are Short in Nifty Aug Futures on the expiry day from 6025 level and currently we have locked more than 100 points with one Whipsaw of 20 points on the way down.
update - Market tanked further and we have locked around 175 points of profit.

Yesterday when few new friends joined me - I asked them to go short and lets sync with my system at around 5915 level, I know it was not a very good entry, but to me if system is short then we have to be short, no matter what the level is. If i can not buy it, it means that i have to sell it. (SAR System with few Exceptions when SAR level is too far from the current market price, we keep TSLs)

One of my trader friend replied when i sent the short call- "With Due respect my view - NF premium of 50 points. Govt determined to bring down Rs. and hence restriction on new position and increase in margin for currency trading suggests market will move up, Pl note nifty is at this level in spite of banks are weak. "

My reply to him - "I don't predict, I only react and my reaction point is at 59** and I will take long only when Nifty moves above 59**, And I do not mix fundamentals into my system and will suggest the same to you. Govt was still doing the same thing when Nifty was at 6100 days a few days back, But market do what they want to do"

I hope I made my point clear.

Cheers
Pawan/Shahii

6 comments:

  1. Good stuff Pawan. thanks

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  3. My advice to all who wants to follow pawan just REACT to his calls cause for Pawan "TREND IS FRIEND" and if ur Pawan's friend then Trend is also your friend.

    On a serious note, its difficult to find a successful trader in the stock market and ALL THE MORE DIFFICULT TO FIND ONE WHO IS WILLING TO SHARE.

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  4. Shahii, I am among few started receiving your demo SMSes last two days. Good to see that emotions are kept away and profits are locked in a controlled way - perhaps, not an easy one. Wishing you all the best.

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  5. Obviously you are experienced and have your own method. However, I have a couple of questions.
    1) Your philosophy of always being in the market (either short/long) doesnt make much sense to me. A third of the time, the market doesnt trend and if one follows a lagging indicator like an SAR, they are bound to get a large number of whipsaws. How do you deal with that?
    2) Are you a discretionary trader or a systems trader?

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